All of the attention this week in football (and in most other media outlets as well) has been focused entirely on domestic abuse in the wake of the release of the full horrific video of Ray Rice and his then-fiancee Janay in that elevator in Atlantic City. Plenty of questions arose from this "national discussion" of the matter, partly because of the graphic nature of the video, but also because of the bungling of the case by the NFL. Jason Whitlock of ESPN had a great article on Monday, highlighting how this could or should mean the end for Roger Goodell. Whether or not that happens, it's clear that Goodell is the one to blame for mishandling the investigation; this is the fallout from appointing yourself judge, jury, and executioner of his personal conduct policy.
But unfortunately, media analysis has again made the national discussion of domestic abuse into a sideshow in ineptitude. All Tuesday, every ESPN channel was covering a story that had run out of angles and just placed the talking heads against each other in a futile attempt to stir up ratings. The only worthwhile commentary coming out of "The WorldWide Leader" is from the few female hosts, notably Jemele Hill who remarked on how the national attention is similar to the OJ Simpson case when Nicole Brown's domestic abuse 911 call was played. It strikes powerful feelings in people to see and hear evidence of domestic abuse because although it is a widespread cultural problem, it is behind closed doors the bulk of the time and people become uncomfortable involving themselves in someone else's relationship.
Possibly the silver lining of this national media circus of repetitive stories came about on Twitter yesterday with the hashtags #WhyIStayed and #WhyILeft. These displayed personal accounts of survivors and how they stepped up to end the cycle of abuse. Some of the best examples were collected into articles and reposted on media sites. This could end up being one of the most successful campaigns in Twitter history, a true chance for public education and societal change that trends on social media. Hopefully when athletes do stupid stuff in the future, it can elicit better responses from the people paid to cover them, rather than making the talking heads on TV look more out of touch than your average tweeter.
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
Thursday, September 4, 2014
NFL Season Preview
Well I've avoided doing too much speculation because of preseason being a big tease for the regular season, and it usually has no impact. The Giants, Vikings, and Ravens went undefeated and the Colts couldn't win a game. How useful is that? There's a little speculation to be made in how first-team players looked against certain competition, but a lot of that gets tossed out the window by the time Week 2 starts. That being said, these are my predictions for each of the 32 teams, and ranked by where I think they'll fall within the division, because power rankings aren't all that useful.
AFC East:
Patriots - Still leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the division. Revis will make their cornerbacks formidable again, although not a top notch unit anymore without Spikes. Gronkowski and their new tight-end Timothy Wright could stretch out defenses like in years past, but giving up Mankins will probably hurt some of their interior running and pass protection.
Bills - Made a lot of moves this offseason to try and make the team into a legitimate contender, but it all starts with the QB play. Preseason aside, EJ Manuel has to start winning games for this team to take full advantage of their shutdown defense, which was second toughest against QB's after Seattle's last year. If they can take a game or two from the Pats, they could be a real threat.
Jets - Last year may be the upshot for their success this year too. The secondary could be a nightmare for Rex Ryan this year, after he retooled most of the defense last year to get younger and stronger up front. If Geno Smith can hang onto the ball more and stop forcing too many passes, he can definitely lead the team farther. If not, they're in Vick's hands, which are not the surest in the league at this point.
Dolphins - I can't help but feeling that their tailspin to end last year was a byproduct of a terribly out-of-touch coaching staff. How the permissive head coach who allowed the bullying scandal to ruin his team's season got to keep his job is perplexing. Even more perplexing is how they addressed the offensive line: big money stopgaps won't stop some of the best pass rushers in the league, which are concentrated within this division.
AFC North:
Ravens - If they return to a solid running game as the base of their offense, this team should be able to handle the schedule they earned from last year's third-place swoon. Their defense took a predicted step backwards last year with too many losses after a Super Bowl win, but they still have one of the best coaches in the league along with a decent enough QB in Flacco. The combination can't be broken after one middling season, this team should bounce back strong.
Bengals - It always surprises me when the Bengals pull off a good season, but then I'm never surprised by a playoff loss: the team hasn't won in the playoffs in 23 years, so not in my lifetime. Dalton may not be the exceptional QB one would hope for, but he's certainly competent enough to lead the team with a bright young offense and overachieving defense. The real key is how they handle the division; if they start losing games to the Steelers, Ravens, or Browns, their chances of even making the playoffs all but evaporates.
Steelers - Last year I picked the Steelers to win the division, and therefore cursed them to start the season off with a disastrous 1-4 record (Pittsburgh loves the Jets). I still think this is a solid core, and one of the better offensive and defensive line combos in the league. The passing game is fine, but getting more solid production from their running backs should ease the burden on Big Ben's shoulders. Tomlin is a stellar coach too, getting the most out of his players.
Browns - Uneasy is a front office that offers this much public infighting throughout the offseason. Pettine may be the right hire, but firing their last coach minutes after the end of the regular season will hurt their credit with a lot of their veterans. All of the attention will be focused around Johnny Football/Headlines/Manziel but I think Hoyer could surprise early if the offense around him responds. Although Josh Gordon is suspended an entire year for smoking weed (such a sin; Irsay got six games for driving on pills) their receiving core should be solid enough. The biggest questions are on defense and overall depth. This team could be spiraling by October, as most Browns seasons tend to do. Don't look for Manziel to rescue the team, but here's hoping Hoyer fends off the ESPN media blitz long enough.
AFC South
1. Colts - The best team in a weak division still can make a strong playoff push. I think Luck will come into his own as a truly great quarterback in his third season, and the defense has improved each of the past two seasons. The big mark now is consistency: last year the team beat the 49ers, Seahawks, Chiefs (twice), and Broncos, but lost head-scratchers to the Dolphins, Rams, Bengals, and Patriots to end their playoff run. If they stay healthy at running back, and Richardson bounces back ever so slightly, this team could enjoy home-field advantage through the playoffs.
2. Jaguars - This is my favorite team (because, hey, somebody's got to like them) and maybe that's why I'm picking them second in the division, but even I'm not expecting much more than 6 wins this year. The Jags had a productive offseason, picking up Gerhart to start at RB now that Jones-Drew isworn-out starting for Oakland, adding Bryant and Clemons from Seattle's D-line, and drafting Blake Bortles as the first QB in the draft. Gus Bradley is an energetic head coach, and it'll be interesting to see how patient he is with Bortles, as Henne will almost certainly have handed over the starting job on a silver platter sometime around the Week 11 bye.
3. Texans - Some good draft stock helped the Texans bounce back this offseason, even if they weren't the worst team last year, although a 14-game losing streak is hard to doubt. Fitzpatrick at quarterback won't vault this team to the top of the division, but it fixes their pick-six problem from last season. If they're lucky, they can ride a last place schedule and weak division to a surprising record, but more likely I think this team settles for a 5-6 win season, which is still excellent improvement.
4. Titans - Even if I have my anti-Titans prejudices, I think they made a huge mistake by firing the coach and not the quarterback from last season. Locker is in his second (and hopefully last) make-or-break season without proving that he can either command an excellent offense or stay healthy for any stretch of time. His running game lost Chris Johnson, but forgot to replace him with anyone, and the defense looks very shaky transitioning to a 3-4. There were some quality teams under Munchak the last three seasons, and now that Wisenhunt is the signal-caller, he better hope Locker looks more like Kurt Warner and Phillip Rivers and less like Kevin Kolb or Derek Anderson.
AFC West
1. Broncos - Peyton Manning is still alive and hurling the football across the field, so there's no reason to think he'll be sitting out of the playoffs. His team did a good job of replacing some of their players lost in the inevitable post-Super-Bowl-exile. The offense collapsed under the Seahawks tremendous pressure, but other than the 49ers there aren't many other teams that clamp down like Seattle did. I'm not expecting another 13 win season and Peyton to break more records he owns, but it's hard to pick against a team that beats every opponent at least once except the Colts and Seahawks.
2. Chargers - Ken Wisenhunt got a lot of credit as the offensive coordinator last year for rejuvenating Phillip Rivers, but my money is on the head coaching staff to keep things aggressive for Rivers. The team rediscovered its offensive identity and spent this offseason adding corners to shore up their porous pass defense. The team has a tough schedule, playing the intimidating NFC West, but if they can edge past Denver in either of their two match-ups the division could be winnable.
3. Chiefs - A small step back might not hurt this team too much, but a very conservative offseason will definitely upset their diehard fan base. Last year was a miracle turnaround from worst to wild card, and Andy Reid and Alex Smith both looked brilliant in the perfect environment. Then their defense gave up 28 points to the Colts in 28 minutes, and the front office spent the rest of the offseason pouting instead of signing anyone. Losing McCluster might hurt their ability to stretch the field horizontally from the slot, but losing Albert at left tackle stings, especially when losing both right guards from last year too. The defense might have improved, but cutting starting CB Brandon Flowers and letting the Chargers scoop him up will definitely hurt in a division ruled by Manning & Rivers, with Wilson, Kaepernick, Brady, and Roethlisberger on the schedule too.
4. Raiders - A big offseason spending spree won't cover the terrible smell that's been reeking from Oakland over the last dozen years. A proud franchise history can still attract free agents, and even though its now Mark Davis running the show, a lot of dysfunctional bureaucracy still exists at the top of the front office. This team has remained the pushover team in a division that has quickly become one of the strongest in the league, and this year the Raiders have the toughest schedule based on last-season-win-percentage. MJD might still be able to run, and Justin Tuck might have some rush left in him, but those long-term deals will come back to haunt the Raiders in a year or two, especially if the team doesn't produce behind rookie starting QB Derek Carr.
NFC East
1. Eagles - It's hardly a stretch to pick a team that looked flawless at times last season to repeat as division champs. But in this division, picking a consecutive winner is probably the riskiest bet of all. I like the team Kelly's built around his dynamic offensive game plan and Foles has a new backfield target in the still-explosive Darren Sproles. Little attention goes to the defense which got better as the season wore on, and quietly built the secondary and linebackers through free agency.
2. Giants - It seems whenever you pick the Giants to do well, they flop. And it's usually when you don't expect them to do much that they surprise. They had the most turnover of any team that didn't fire the head coach or GM, losing 4 offensive starters and 5 on defense. If the new offensive scheme really is a change of pace, Eli should be good at finding his receivers in the back corner of the end zone, but if it's still Coughlin calling those baffling third-and-ten draw plays, it could be another anemic offense. It's all about the hot start for the team, and their first four games are against Detroit, Arizona, Houston, and Washington. If the team gets off to a 3 or 4 win start in those winnable games, it's hard to foresee them not in the playoff hunt this time around.
3. Cowboys - Will all the Romo-haters please step back for a minute and acknowledge how blind you have to be to not love the guy? He's a proven winner and consistently clutch, but never in that last game of the season. Three straight .500 seasons with last-game-losses to eliminate the Cowboys is a bizarre trend, but I think the team has taken a step backwards with a shaky defensive line a year after being the worst pass defense in team history. It's hard to imagine any sort of consistency with two defensive coordinators (Kiffin and Marinelli) and two offensive play callers not named Jason Garrett (Callahan and Linehan). Jerry Jones has stacked his coaching staff with former head coaches, and I think it'll be difficult for Garrett to have any sort of command over a team that is still largely driven by egos. A collapse would hardly be surprising, and five of their last seven games are on the road.
4. Washington - All the attention may be on RG3, but I'd like to see some more consistency out of the running game. Alfred Morris was a remarkable rookie, but fairly pedestrian last year. Look for the offensive line to struggle switching out of Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme, and the defense is still solid but lost one of the greatest in London Fletcher. Firing Shanahan became the right move as last season dragged on and on into obscurity, but there's enough dynamic talent left on the squad to raise a few eyebrows and possibly compete in a fairly even division. But until they put up, no one's picking Washington to make a run.
NFC North
1. Packers - Hardly a surprise to pick a team that's won three straight division titles and been to the playoffs 5 years running, but as long as Rodgers is taking snaps this team is bound for winning seasons. The biggest problem last year was when Rodgers wasn't healthy. The offensive line is much healthier and deeper this year, hopefully keeping the sack total down. On the defense, they're back to old-form with Peppers and Matthews as the edge rushers and tweaking how the tackles attack the QB in a new hybrid scheme. The secondary has been a strong point for years, and adding Clinton-Dix out of Alabama could give them a big playmaker they lost when Woodson went back to Oakland. If the team is even slightly healthier, they could be a top-tier team again rather than a barely-made-it squad.
2. Bears - Last season gave Chicago it's best offense ever, at the cost of a once-proud defense being a pushover. They had a legitimate chance to beat the Packers in the last game, until their defense collapsed on the last two drives and let Green Bay have another home playoff game. Doubts about Jay Cutler should be gone with another stellar season, provided he stay healthy. Forte is a top notch running back, and the receivers have only grown behind Marshall. Signing Jared Allen is a noble effort at fixing the team's pass-rush ineptitude, but consistent pressure from the aging linebackers would help the young and inexperienced secondary. They're still too flashy to pick against, but there's plenty of room for the Bears to improve.
3. Lions - This team could surprise and make a run at the division title if Caldwell works some of his offensive magic into a disappointing squad hampered by off-the-field issues and egos the last two years. Stafford might finally have an opportunity to show that he can be an elite gunslinger, and his dual running game could only help open up the play action deep down the field. The defense is incredibly shallow behind the starting 11, and injuries could spell disaster for a team that was 6th against the rush last year and 16th overall. Look for the team to get better as the season goes on, rather than collapse like the last two seasons.
4. Vikings - They have a long way to go, but Mike Zimmer is the right coach to lead an attacking defense after too many years of a passive cover-2 scheme let Rodgers, Cutler, and Stafford tear them up. Bridgewater is the quarterback of the future, and I think the sooner he gets to start the better off the team will be. Peterson only has another year or two as the dominant runner he is, and the offensive line is consistent and healthy. Patience is the key word for the defense, as rookie Anthony Barr out of UCLA could be as physical a defender as Lance Briggs in a few years. The secondary is slightly improved by signing Munnerlyn, but it will be a long season of trying to play ball control versus the three great QB's in the division.
NFC South
1. Saints - This division is the most impossible to pick every year, and last year was ridiculously improbable enough. The Saints rebounded well from Payton's suspension, but fell one game short of the division title. This year, I think they're the most consistent and dynamic team in the division. Still hard to predict much, except that Brees will throw 4,000 yards, they'll still have a surprising power running game, and the Rob Ryan defense will continue to improve with new safety Jairus Byrd. If the defense starts forcing more turnovers like they did in 2009 to win the Super Bowl, they could just end up in that game again.
2. Falcons - This year should be a huge rebound for Mike Smith's team that were ravaged by injuries and defensive lapses last year. They completely abandoned the running game, and Matt Ryan still held his own on the most predictable offense in the league. They almost sneaked out a late season victory in San Francisco, but offensive line disasters doomed the team to a 4-12 record. Rookie Jake Matthews will start immediately at left tackle since Sam Baker is on injured reserve for the second consecutive year. The defense got better by addend linemen Soliai and Tyson jackson, but they need more playmakers. Osi Umenyiora led the team in sacks with 7.5 and no one had more than 3 interceptions. If the defense stiffens up, and a running game develops behind a better offensive line, look for Ryan to be leading a top-tier squad again.
3. Panthers - A step back this year may spell long term success for a team that soared to a 12-4 record from a great winning streak, fourth-down gambling, and Cam Newton's excellent ability to lead a drive. Newton's numbers aren't as gaudy as some of the passers in the league, but his rushing touchdowns add a threat absent from the conventional pocket passers he outdueled last year. Losing left tackle Gross to retirement compounded the problems from losing receivers LaFell, Hixon, and Steve Smith. Although the defense was stellar last year, and Luke Kuechly proved that the 8 picks ahead of him were a mistake, the secondary is the weakest link. The front seven makes up for a lot of that with great edge rushers like Hardy and Johnson, but the corners have barely any experience and the safeties are old and unexciting. Tough division means this team might be waiting on the sidelines for their young players to develop on both sides of the ball.
4. Buccaneers - This team has turned into a flashy pick to surprise in the division due to the popular hiring of Lovie Smith at coach. Free agency made this team from a bottom-dweller into a legitimate contender in most opinions, but I think the team is still a year or two away. Josh McCown had a great season filling in for Jay Cutler, but it may be harder without that same offensive scheme for a 34-year old journeyman to really light up defenses. The Bucs can run the ball, and their line should be improved from last year's disaster, but the real success will depend on the defense. Lavonte Davis could turn into another Derrick Brooks on the weak side, and having McCoy partnered with Michael Johnson should make the line formidable. Losing Revis will hurt their secondary depth, but Alterraun Verner should fill in one slot nicely. The team did a total redesign of the uniforms and logos, and thankfully hired one of the most respected coaches in the league to lead an underachieving club.
NFC West
1. Seahawks - The toughest team from the toughest division won the Super Bowl last year, and it's too early to predict anything other than the team's continued success. Russell Wilson looks like the real deal as a perfect game manager with explosive tendencies. Marshawn Lynch is getting older, but is still the hardest-to-tackle runner in the league. If Percy Harvin stays healthy, rookie Paul Richardson could help keep the receiving core in the top of the league. Similar to the Giants championships, the Seahawks can absorb losing three defensive line starters because Bryant, Clemons, and McDonald were in a seven-player rotation. The secondary gets all the credit for making amazing plays, but the linebackers like backup Malcolm Smith (Super Bowl MVP) are the real reason the defense is the best in the league once again. Repeat is a goal for the team right now, but Carroll always keeps his players focused on the game in front of them. Don't look for the team to get too cocky, they realize they're the easiest target in the league.
2. 49ers - Probably the second best team in the league unfortunately shares a division with the reigning Super Bowl champs. Kaepernick looked outstanding in his first full season, and even if he goes 4 for 10 on a drive, he can probably win the whole game on those four throws alone. His running has been curtailed by Harbaugh's caution, and Gore handles the between-the-tackles work as fine as any veteran out there. This team is stacked in receivers this year with Brandon Lloyd and Stevie Johnson, but the offensive line is the deepest and toughest part of the offense. On defense, the team hopes Justin Smith returns to dominance like in 2011 and the linebackers will be tested with Aldon Smith's suspension and Bowman's injury. The secondary is three-quarters new starters, which could take some adjusting early in the season. The team is poised for another season at the top of the league, but until they start handling Seattle and the rest of the division cleanly, there's no way for this team to get through to the next level.
3. Rams - Bit of an upset here, as the Cardinals pulled out a strong season last year, but I think the Rams are the team to surprise in this division. Losing Bradford before the season even starts may work out to the team's advantage as now they can plan around Shaun Hill as their season-long starter. While that's certainly no boon for the team, it allows them to dominate time of possession with breakout RB Zac Stacy again. If the offensive line provides just enough protection, the offense could surprise some of the worse defenses in the league. Meanwhile, their defense has quietly become one of the best in the league, finishing last year third in sacks and 9th in rushing defense. Michael Sam's failure with the team was of no fault of his; this is probably the best defensive line in football with Chris Long, Robert Quinn, and Hayes at DT. James Laurinaitis is one of the best middle linebackers in the league, and Ogletree next to him form a great tackling pair. The secondary is coming along under Fisher's watchful eye, and look for T.J. McDonald to make a lot of big plays in the secondary this year. If they can win some tough games against in an impossible division, like they did last year, look for them to surprise a lot of people.
4. Cardinals - They could be the best last place team I'm picking this year. Last year's success was tremendous and fell just 4 points short of making the wild card, but a lot of that was fueled by an aging team. Carson Palmer pulled off magic last year at age 35, but the team has very little depth behind him. The running game looks conspicuously absent without Mendenhall or Ryan Williams, but the receivers are deep enough to keep the passing game afloat. Adding left tackle Veldheer will help the line, but it's the defensive side where they should be more concerned. The tackles are solid, but the pass rush is largely due to 36-year old John Abraham and an aging linebacker core could be problems in the running and mid-passing games. I like what Bruce Arians did last season with a last place schedule, but this year they've got to keep winning in the division, as well as against the NFC East and AFC West, which may be too much for a team this old.
AFC East:
Patriots - Still leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the division. Revis will make their cornerbacks formidable again, although not a top notch unit anymore without Spikes. Gronkowski and their new tight-end Timothy Wright could stretch out defenses like in years past, but giving up Mankins will probably hurt some of their interior running and pass protection.
Bills - Made a lot of moves this offseason to try and make the team into a legitimate contender, but it all starts with the QB play. Preseason aside, EJ Manuel has to start winning games for this team to take full advantage of their shutdown defense, which was second toughest against QB's after Seattle's last year. If they can take a game or two from the Pats, they could be a real threat.
Jets - Last year may be the upshot for their success this year too. The secondary could be a nightmare for Rex Ryan this year, after he retooled most of the defense last year to get younger and stronger up front. If Geno Smith can hang onto the ball more and stop forcing too many passes, he can definitely lead the team farther. If not, they're in Vick's hands, which are not the surest in the league at this point.
Dolphins - I can't help but feeling that their tailspin to end last year was a byproduct of a terribly out-of-touch coaching staff. How the permissive head coach who allowed the bullying scandal to ruin his team's season got to keep his job is perplexing. Even more perplexing is how they addressed the offensive line: big money stopgaps won't stop some of the best pass rushers in the league, which are concentrated within this division.
AFC North:
Ravens - If they return to a solid running game as the base of their offense, this team should be able to handle the schedule they earned from last year's third-place swoon. Their defense took a predicted step backwards last year with too many losses after a Super Bowl win, but they still have one of the best coaches in the league along with a decent enough QB in Flacco. The combination can't be broken after one middling season, this team should bounce back strong.
Bengals - It always surprises me when the Bengals pull off a good season, but then I'm never surprised by a playoff loss: the team hasn't won in the playoffs in 23 years, so not in my lifetime. Dalton may not be the exceptional QB one would hope for, but he's certainly competent enough to lead the team with a bright young offense and overachieving defense. The real key is how they handle the division; if they start losing games to the Steelers, Ravens, or Browns, their chances of even making the playoffs all but evaporates.
Steelers - Last year I picked the Steelers to win the division, and therefore cursed them to start the season off with a disastrous 1-4 record (Pittsburgh loves the Jets). I still think this is a solid core, and one of the better offensive and defensive line combos in the league. The passing game is fine, but getting more solid production from their running backs should ease the burden on Big Ben's shoulders. Tomlin is a stellar coach too, getting the most out of his players.
Browns - Uneasy is a front office that offers this much public infighting throughout the offseason. Pettine may be the right hire, but firing their last coach minutes after the end of the regular season will hurt their credit with a lot of their veterans. All of the attention will be focused around Johnny Football/Headlines/Manziel but I think Hoyer could surprise early if the offense around him responds. Although Josh Gordon is suspended an entire year for smoking weed (such a sin; Irsay got six games for driving on pills) their receiving core should be solid enough. The biggest questions are on defense and overall depth. This team could be spiraling by October, as most Browns seasons tend to do. Don't look for Manziel to rescue the team, but here's hoping Hoyer fends off the ESPN media blitz long enough.
AFC South
1. Colts - The best team in a weak division still can make a strong playoff push. I think Luck will come into his own as a truly great quarterback in his third season, and the defense has improved each of the past two seasons. The big mark now is consistency: last year the team beat the 49ers, Seahawks, Chiefs (twice), and Broncos, but lost head-scratchers to the Dolphins, Rams, Bengals, and Patriots to end their playoff run. If they stay healthy at running back, and Richardson bounces back ever so slightly, this team could enjoy home-field advantage through the playoffs.
2. Jaguars - This is my favorite team (because, hey, somebody's got to like them) and maybe that's why I'm picking them second in the division, but even I'm not expecting much more than 6 wins this year. The Jags had a productive offseason, picking up Gerhart to start at RB now that Jones-Drew is
3. Texans - Some good draft stock helped the Texans bounce back this offseason, even if they weren't the worst team last year, although a 14-game losing streak is hard to doubt. Fitzpatrick at quarterback won't vault this team to the top of the division, but it fixes their pick-six problem from last season. If they're lucky, they can ride a last place schedule and weak division to a surprising record, but more likely I think this team settles for a 5-6 win season, which is still excellent improvement.
4. Titans - Even if I have my anti-Titans prejudices, I think they made a huge mistake by firing the coach and not the quarterback from last season. Locker is in his second (and hopefully last) make-or-break season without proving that he can either command an excellent offense or stay healthy for any stretch of time. His running game lost Chris Johnson, but forgot to replace him with anyone, and the defense looks very shaky transitioning to a 3-4. There were some quality teams under Munchak the last three seasons, and now that Wisenhunt is the signal-caller, he better hope Locker looks more like Kurt Warner and Phillip Rivers and less like Kevin Kolb or Derek Anderson.
AFC West
1. Broncos - Peyton Manning is still alive and hurling the football across the field, so there's no reason to think he'll be sitting out of the playoffs. His team did a good job of replacing some of their players lost in the inevitable post-Super-Bowl-exile. The offense collapsed under the Seahawks tremendous pressure, but other than the 49ers there aren't many other teams that clamp down like Seattle did. I'm not expecting another 13 win season and Peyton to break more records he owns, but it's hard to pick against a team that beats every opponent at least once except the Colts and Seahawks.
2. Chargers - Ken Wisenhunt got a lot of credit as the offensive coordinator last year for rejuvenating Phillip Rivers, but my money is on the head coaching staff to keep things aggressive for Rivers. The team rediscovered its offensive identity and spent this offseason adding corners to shore up their porous pass defense. The team has a tough schedule, playing the intimidating NFC West, but if they can edge past Denver in either of their two match-ups the division could be winnable.
3. Chiefs - A small step back might not hurt this team too much, but a very conservative offseason will definitely upset their diehard fan base. Last year was a miracle turnaround from worst to wild card, and Andy Reid and Alex Smith both looked brilliant in the perfect environment. Then their defense gave up 28 points to the Colts in 28 minutes, and the front office spent the rest of the offseason pouting instead of signing anyone. Losing McCluster might hurt their ability to stretch the field horizontally from the slot, but losing Albert at left tackle stings, especially when losing both right guards from last year too. The defense might have improved, but cutting starting CB Brandon Flowers and letting the Chargers scoop him up will definitely hurt in a division ruled by Manning & Rivers, with Wilson, Kaepernick, Brady, and Roethlisberger on the schedule too.
4. Raiders - A big offseason spending spree won't cover the terrible smell that's been reeking from Oakland over the last dozen years. A proud franchise history can still attract free agents, and even though its now Mark Davis running the show, a lot of dysfunctional bureaucracy still exists at the top of the front office. This team has remained the pushover team in a division that has quickly become one of the strongest in the league, and this year the Raiders have the toughest schedule based on last-season-win-percentage. MJD might still be able to run, and Justin Tuck might have some rush left in him, but those long-term deals will come back to haunt the Raiders in a year or two, especially if the team doesn't produce behind rookie starting QB Derek Carr.
NFC East
1. Eagles - It's hardly a stretch to pick a team that looked flawless at times last season to repeat as division champs. But in this division, picking a consecutive winner is probably the riskiest bet of all. I like the team Kelly's built around his dynamic offensive game plan and Foles has a new backfield target in the still-explosive Darren Sproles. Little attention goes to the defense which got better as the season wore on, and quietly built the secondary and linebackers through free agency.
2. Giants - It seems whenever you pick the Giants to do well, they flop. And it's usually when you don't expect them to do much that they surprise. They had the most turnover of any team that didn't fire the head coach or GM, losing 4 offensive starters and 5 on defense. If the new offensive scheme really is a change of pace, Eli should be good at finding his receivers in the back corner of the end zone, but if it's still Coughlin calling those baffling third-and-ten draw plays, it could be another anemic offense. It's all about the hot start for the team, and their first four games are against Detroit, Arizona, Houston, and Washington. If the team gets off to a 3 or 4 win start in those winnable games, it's hard to foresee them not in the playoff hunt this time around.
3. Cowboys - Will all the Romo-haters please step back for a minute and acknowledge how blind you have to be to not love the guy? He's a proven winner and consistently clutch, but never in that last game of the season. Three straight .500 seasons with last-game-losses to eliminate the Cowboys is a bizarre trend, but I think the team has taken a step backwards with a shaky defensive line a year after being the worst pass defense in team history. It's hard to imagine any sort of consistency with two defensive coordinators (Kiffin and Marinelli) and two offensive play callers not named Jason Garrett (Callahan and Linehan). Jerry Jones has stacked his coaching staff with former head coaches, and I think it'll be difficult for Garrett to have any sort of command over a team that is still largely driven by egos. A collapse would hardly be surprising, and five of their last seven games are on the road.
4. Washington - All the attention may be on RG3, but I'd like to see some more consistency out of the running game. Alfred Morris was a remarkable rookie, but fairly pedestrian last year. Look for the offensive line to struggle switching out of Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme, and the defense is still solid but lost one of the greatest in London Fletcher. Firing Shanahan became the right move as last season dragged on and on into obscurity, but there's enough dynamic talent left on the squad to raise a few eyebrows and possibly compete in a fairly even division. But until they put up, no one's picking Washington to make a run.
NFC North
1. Packers - Hardly a surprise to pick a team that's won three straight division titles and been to the playoffs 5 years running, but as long as Rodgers is taking snaps this team is bound for winning seasons. The biggest problem last year was when Rodgers wasn't healthy. The offensive line is much healthier and deeper this year, hopefully keeping the sack total down. On the defense, they're back to old-form with Peppers and Matthews as the edge rushers and tweaking how the tackles attack the QB in a new hybrid scheme. The secondary has been a strong point for years, and adding Clinton-Dix out of Alabama could give them a big playmaker they lost when Woodson went back to Oakland. If the team is even slightly healthier, they could be a top-tier team again rather than a barely-made-it squad.
2. Bears - Last season gave Chicago it's best offense ever, at the cost of a once-proud defense being a pushover. They had a legitimate chance to beat the Packers in the last game, until their defense collapsed on the last two drives and let Green Bay have another home playoff game. Doubts about Jay Cutler should be gone with another stellar season, provided he stay healthy. Forte is a top notch running back, and the receivers have only grown behind Marshall. Signing Jared Allen is a noble effort at fixing the team's pass-rush ineptitude, but consistent pressure from the aging linebackers would help the young and inexperienced secondary. They're still too flashy to pick against, but there's plenty of room for the Bears to improve.
3. Lions - This team could surprise and make a run at the division title if Caldwell works some of his offensive magic into a disappointing squad hampered by off-the-field issues and egos the last two years. Stafford might finally have an opportunity to show that he can be an elite gunslinger, and his dual running game could only help open up the play action deep down the field. The defense is incredibly shallow behind the starting 11, and injuries could spell disaster for a team that was 6th against the rush last year and 16th overall. Look for the team to get better as the season goes on, rather than collapse like the last two seasons.
4. Vikings - They have a long way to go, but Mike Zimmer is the right coach to lead an attacking defense after too many years of a passive cover-2 scheme let Rodgers, Cutler, and Stafford tear them up. Bridgewater is the quarterback of the future, and I think the sooner he gets to start the better off the team will be. Peterson only has another year or two as the dominant runner he is, and the offensive line is consistent and healthy. Patience is the key word for the defense, as rookie Anthony Barr out of UCLA could be as physical a defender as Lance Briggs in a few years. The secondary is slightly improved by signing Munnerlyn, but it will be a long season of trying to play ball control versus the three great QB's in the division.
NFC South
1. Saints - This division is the most impossible to pick every year, and last year was ridiculously improbable enough. The Saints rebounded well from Payton's suspension, but fell one game short of the division title. This year, I think they're the most consistent and dynamic team in the division. Still hard to predict much, except that Brees will throw 4,000 yards, they'll still have a surprising power running game, and the Rob Ryan defense will continue to improve with new safety Jairus Byrd. If the defense starts forcing more turnovers like they did in 2009 to win the Super Bowl, they could just end up in that game again.
2. Falcons - This year should be a huge rebound for Mike Smith's team that were ravaged by injuries and defensive lapses last year. They completely abandoned the running game, and Matt Ryan still held his own on the most predictable offense in the league. They almost sneaked out a late season victory in San Francisco, but offensive line disasters doomed the team to a 4-12 record. Rookie Jake Matthews will start immediately at left tackle since Sam Baker is on injured reserve for the second consecutive year. The defense got better by addend linemen Soliai and Tyson jackson, but they need more playmakers. Osi Umenyiora led the team in sacks with 7.5 and no one had more than 3 interceptions. If the defense stiffens up, and a running game develops behind a better offensive line, look for Ryan to be leading a top-tier squad again.
3. Panthers - A step back this year may spell long term success for a team that soared to a 12-4 record from a great winning streak, fourth-down gambling, and Cam Newton's excellent ability to lead a drive. Newton's numbers aren't as gaudy as some of the passers in the league, but his rushing touchdowns add a threat absent from the conventional pocket passers he outdueled last year. Losing left tackle Gross to retirement compounded the problems from losing receivers LaFell, Hixon, and Steve Smith. Although the defense was stellar last year, and Luke Kuechly proved that the 8 picks ahead of him were a mistake, the secondary is the weakest link. The front seven makes up for a lot of that with great edge rushers like Hardy and Johnson, but the corners have barely any experience and the safeties are old and unexciting. Tough division means this team might be waiting on the sidelines for their young players to develop on both sides of the ball.
4. Buccaneers - This team has turned into a flashy pick to surprise in the division due to the popular hiring of Lovie Smith at coach. Free agency made this team from a bottom-dweller into a legitimate contender in most opinions, but I think the team is still a year or two away. Josh McCown had a great season filling in for Jay Cutler, but it may be harder without that same offensive scheme for a 34-year old journeyman to really light up defenses. The Bucs can run the ball, and their line should be improved from last year's disaster, but the real success will depend on the defense. Lavonte Davis could turn into another Derrick Brooks on the weak side, and having McCoy partnered with Michael Johnson should make the line formidable. Losing Revis will hurt their secondary depth, but Alterraun Verner should fill in one slot nicely. The team did a total redesign of the uniforms and logos, and thankfully hired one of the most respected coaches in the league to lead an underachieving club.
NFC West
1. Seahawks - The toughest team from the toughest division won the Super Bowl last year, and it's too early to predict anything other than the team's continued success. Russell Wilson looks like the real deal as a perfect game manager with explosive tendencies. Marshawn Lynch is getting older, but is still the hardest-to-tackle runner in the league. If Percy Harvin stays healthy, rookie Paul Richardson could help keep the receiving core in the top of the league. Similar to the Giants championships, the Seahawks can absorb losing three defensive line starters because Bryant, Clemons, and McDonald were in a seven-player rotation. The secondary gets all the credit for making amazing plays, but the linebackers like backup Malcolm Smith (Super Bowl MVP) are the real reason the defense is the best in the league once again. Repeat is a goal for the team right now, but Carroll always keeps his players focused on the game in front of them. Don't look for the team to get too cocky, they realize they're the easiest target in the league.
2. 49ers - Probably the second best team in the league unfortunately shares a division with the reigning Super Bowl champs. Kaepernick looked outstanding in his first full season, and even if he goes 4 for 10 on a drive, he can probably win the whole game on those four throws alone. His running has been curtailed by Harbaugh's caution, and Gore handles the between-the-tackles work as fine as any veteran out there. This team is stacked in receivers this year with Brandon Lloyd and Stevie Johnson, but the offensive line is the deepest and toughest part of the offense. On defense, the team hopes Justin Smith returns to dominance like in 2011 and the linebackers will be tested with Aldon Smith's suspension and Bowman's injury. The secondary is three-quarters new starters, which could take some adjusting early in the season. The team is poised for another season at the top of the league, but until they start handling Seattle and the rest of the division cleanly, there's no way for this team to get through to the next level.
3. Rams - Bit of an upset here, as the Cardinals pulled out a strong season last year, but I think the Rams are the team to surprise in this division. Losing Bradford before the season even starts may work out to the team's advantage as now they can plan around Shaun Hill as their season-long starter. While that's certainly no boon for the team, it allows them to dominate time of possession with breakout RB Zac Stacy again. If the offensive line provides just enough protection, the offense could surprise some of the worse defenses in the league. Meanwhile, their defense has quietly become one of the best in the league, finishing last year third in sacks and 9th in rushing defense. Michael Sam's failure with the team was of no fault of his; this is probably the best defensive line in football with Chris Long, Robert Quinn, and Hayes at DT. James Laurinaitis is one of the best middle linebackers in the league, and Ogletree next to him form a great tackling pair. The secondary is coming along under Fisher's watchful eye, and look for T.J. McDonald to make a lot of big plays in the secondary this year. If they can win some tough games against in an impossible division, like they did last year, look for them to surprise a lot of people.
4. Cardinals - They could be the best last place team I'm picking this year. Last year's success was tremendous and fell just 4 points short of making the wild card, but a lot of that was fueled by an aging team. Carson Palmer pulled off magic last year at age 35, but the team has very little depth behind him. The running game looks conspicuously absent without Mendenhall or Ryan Williams, but the receivers are deep enough to keep the passing game afloat. Adding left tackle Veldheer will help the line, but it's the defensive side where they should be more concerned. The tackles are solid, but the pass rush is largely due to 36-year old John Abraham and an aging linebacker core could be problems in the running and mid-passing games. I like what Bruce Arians did last season with a last place schedule, but this year they've got to keep winning in the division, as well as against the NFC East and AFC West, which may be too much for a team this old.
Tuesday, September 2, 2014
Introduction
Welcome to my latest attempt at blogging! This NFL season I'm going to offer my insight into some of the biggest stories of the season and hopefully start some meaningful discussions about sport issues that too often get simplified into black-and-white. Check back here often as I'll be updating the page weekly on Wednesdays for coming week previews and recaps. Thanks for reading.
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